luni, 24 aprilie 2017

Time to short TSLA

Later update: so it seems that the recent hallucinatory valuations of TSLA stock has to do with Mr. Musk's political opportunity to pose a muppet for Mr. Trump. You can tell Mr. Musk has nothing to do with anything, because a decent person wouldn't declare he'll resign if - you don't threat people. Especially the most powerful in the world. Anyways, today we should hear the US administration withdrawing the country from the Paris agreement, hence Mr. Musk resigning as a window display piece, hence "a correction" in TSLA stock.

Few days ago, Tesla became the biggest car company in the US. Didn't matter that it never delivered one cent in yearly profits and that this year it is expected to lose more money than ever - $950 million. It didn't matter that it sold 76 thousand cars while GM sold 10 million and Ford 7 million, still Tesla is America's biggest car manufacturer by market valuation (some $310/share @$50 billion).

Now Tesla is taking another huge step for the mankind, by replacing the "beta testing" with computer simulations; I think this is indeed the future of design, but by no means Mr. Musk is the one to deliver it. Hence there is a very very very big chance that Model 3 is a flop, which means Tesla will increasingly be pushed away from the spotlight. Maybe even go bankrupt. Tesla is trying to hedge against it with SolarCity, but we shouldn't forget that it was also losing money, came with a debt of some $3 billion in the bag, was a family cash-out with investor's money (Mr. Musk's cousins won the lottery this time) and it didn't yet launch the wonder solar roof tiles to be paired with the affordable battery sets (rumored to be exhausted car batteries).

Dear Mr. Musk, ulciorul nu merge de multe ori la apă.

P.S. Initially I wanted to say that Tesla will increasingly become unsignificant, not out of the spotlight, but when you sell like 10 times less cars than Dacia you are definitely not significant in the industry. And don't give me that "game changer" crap - transition to electric started long before Tesla even existed, almost all big companies started to work on ZEVs (Zero Emissions Vehicle) a decade before Mr. Musk won the lottery.

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